Aon Stock Has a $506 Price Target. That’s 42% Upside From Here.

Key Stats for Aon Stock as of July 2026

• Ten buy ratings, four outperforms, six holds and two underperforms cover Aon stock, and the $386 mean target implies just 9% upside from the current $356.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values Aon stock at $506 by December 2030, a 42% total return worth 8% annualized from here.
• Aon stock looks undervalued against that path, since normalized EPS hasn’t grown under 9% in any of the last eight quarters, even as headline GAAP EPS is projected to fall 42% in the December 2026 quarter alone.
• In Q1 2026, Aon spent $500 million buying back stock it called a discount to intrinsic value.

See why Aon’s normalized EPS keeps growing above 9% even as GAAP EPS is set to fall 42% next year. Research Aon stock on TIKR for free →

Aon Stock Beats Q1 EPS Estimates as GAAP and Normalized Earnings Diverge

Aon plc (AON) posted normalized EPS of $6.48 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, beating the Street’s $6.40 estimate as organic revenue grew 5% and total revenue climbed 6% to $5 billion.

That normalized figure ran 13% ahead of GAAP EPS of $5.63 for the same quarter, a gap tied to one-time items embedded in the prior-year comparison.

The divergence widens further out. Consensus estimates project GAAP EPS to fall 42% in the December 2026 quarter, a base effect against a December 2025 quarter likely inflated by gains tied to Aon’s sale of NFP Wealth, even as normalized EPS for that same quarter is expected to grow 11%

CFO Edmund Reese addressed the capital Aon deployed to buy back shares directly on the Q1 earnings call: “We recognized the unique market conditions and opportunistically deployed $500 million to repurchase shares at prices we believe represent a compelling discount to intrinsic value.” That figure doubled the average quarterly repurchase pace of the prior eight quarters.

Beneath the earnings print, Aon’s construction and data center insurance business grew at a double-digit rate. The firm’s data center life cycle program expanded capacity to $3.5 billion after starting the year near $1 billion, positioning Aon to place coverage for the AI buildout hyperscalers are funding.

What that means for Aon’s competitive position is that the buyback and the data center expansion both signal management’s own conviction in the normalized earnings trend, even as the December 2026 GAAP print is set to look rough on paper.

Track how Aon’s data center insurance facility, now at $3.5 billion, feeds into the earnings trend ahead. Research Aon stock on TIKR for free →

Wall Street’s Buy-Heavy Coverage of Aon Stock Leaves Little Room to Run

Wall Street’s coverage of Aon stock leans bullish with 10 buy ratings and 4 outperforms outweigh 6 holds and 2 underperforms across 19 analysts. The $386 mean target sits 9% above the current $356 price, down from a $414 mean last September as the implied upside has compressed.

Wall Street Expects Aon Stock’s Normalized EPS to Keep Growing Above 9% Every Quarter

Aon posted normalized EPS of $6.48 for the quarter ended March 2026, up 14% year over year and above the $6.40 Street estimate.

The Street models normalized EPS at $3.80 in the June 2026 quarter, up 9%, and $3.42 in September, up 12%, a seasonal step-down from the March peak that still holds double-digit-adjacent growth.

By December 2026, normalized EPS is projected to reach $5.38, up 11%, even as GAAP EPS for the same quarter is expected to fall 42% to $4.55 against a base inflated by one-time gains in December 2025. Normalized EPS then climbs to $7.14 by March 2027, up 10%, and $4.27 by June 2027, up 12%.

The December 2026 print is the test. If normalized EPS grows 11% while GAAP EPS falls 42% as modeled, it will show whether the market prices Aon stock off the recurring number or the headline one.

TIKR’s $506 Target on Aon Stock Holds if Normalized Earnings Keep Compounding

TIKR’s mid-case model values Aon stock at $506 by December 2030, implying a 42% total return from the current price of $356, or 8% annualized over 4.5 years.

That annualized rate sits below Aon’s own 10-year historical IRR of 12%, positioning the forward path as more conservative than the company’s track record even before the Street’s tighter mean target is factored in.

The target is reachable if the market keeps crediting Aon’s normalized earnings trend over its GAAP optics, since normalized EPS hasn’t grown under 9% in any modeled quarter through June 2027 even as the December 2026 GAAP print is set to fall 42%. Management is already betting on that gap, having deployed $500 million into buybacks in Q1 at what it called a discount to intrinsic value.

Decide if Aon stock’s path to a $506 target and 42% total return holds up under your own numbers. Model Aon stock on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in Aon plc?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Aon plc stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Aon plc alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

Access Professional Tools to Analyze AON stock on TIKR for Free →

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!