Hims & Hers Fell 7% and Wall Street’s Price Target Now Sits Below the Stock

Key Stats for Hims & Hers Stock

• Current Price: $26.82
• Target Price (Mid): ~$123
• Street Target: ~$27
• Potential Total Return: ~358%
• Annualized IRR: ~40% / year
• Earnings Reaction: -14.10% (May 11, 2026)
• Max Drawdown: -78.06% (February 27, 2026)

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What Happened?

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed at $26.82 on June 12, down 7.10% on the day, and something unusual happened on the way down. The average Wall Street price target, $26.61, slipped below the share price. Analysts are no longer debating how much upside is left. As a group, they’re saying there’s none.

That’s the tension worth sitting with. This is the same stock that hit a 52-week high of $70.43 and now trades near its 52-week low of $13.74. Bulls see a global consumer-health platform growing toward a $6.5 billion revenue target by 2030. Bears see growth stalled at 4% and a profit timeline that keeps sliding right. The question the market can’t yet answer: is the Street capitulating at the wrong moment, or finally pricing reality?

Wall Street Capitulated, and the Number Proves It

The clearest read on sentiment is the Street’s own target history. A year ago, the mean analyst target was $44.16. By March 2026, it was $24.15. As of June 12, it sits at $26.61, just under the $26.82 price. The analyst pool says the same thing: 1 Buy, 3 Outperforms, 12 Holds, 1 Underperform, and no Sells. That’s not conviction. It’s a wall of fence-sitting.

The worry underneath the selling is the one bears keep returning to: branded GLP-1 (the appetite-suppressing weight loss drug class) economics are thinner than the compounded products they replace.

The Quarter That Spooked Everyone Was Self-Inflicted

The May 11 earnings report set this tone, and the stock fell 14.10% the next session. Revenue was $608.1 million, up 4% year over year and 1.4% below the $616.8 million consensus. GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.40 against an expected $0.03. A double miss, on the surface.

The damage was largely a choice. In March, Hims stopped advertising compounded weight loss products to pivot toward branded GLP-1s like the Wegovy pill. That triggered roughly $33 million in restructuring charges, including about $28 million that cut gross margin by 5 points. Strip those costs, and gross margin was 70%, not the reported 65%. The company still produced $89 million in operating cash flow and $53 million in free cash flow for the quarter.

CFO Yemi Okupe called it a deliberate trade-off: “In March, we made a deliberate strategic pivot within our weight loss specialty, one that we knew would create near-term financial noise to unlock immense potential for the platform to accelerate at scale.” That tells investors the margin hit was engineered, not fading demand, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion at the same time.

The early evidence supports him. Within six weeks of adding Wegovy, the platform fulfilled more than 125,000 shipments and is tracking toward more than 100,000 new weight loss subscribers per month, a pace CEO Andrew Dudum said tops even the New Year’s and Super Bowl peaks. Nearly 90% downloaded the app, and the average new subscriber spoke with a provider three times in the first month.

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What Has To Go Right, and What Could Break It

The company isn’t standing still while the Street downgrades it. Hims closed its acquisition of Eucalyptus, a digital-health platform spanning Australia, the UK, Germany, Japan, and Canada, and international revenue grew nearly tenfold year over year to $78 million in Q1. Dudum also pointed to peptides as a coming category, saying Hims expects FDA clarity in July and intends to arrive “not necessarily first but best.”

The bear case is just as concrete. Branded GLP-1 revenue is recognized on a gross basis, which flatters the top line while pressuring margin, and management guided to “a couple of points of degradation on gross margins” ahead. If the second-half profit step-up Okupe promised doesn’t land, the analysts who pulled their targets to the current price look right.

On valuation, the stock trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA of 20.04x and NTM P/E of 54.46x. Those aren’t cheap for a company guiding to 4% near-term growth, which is the bear’s whole point. The bull’s reply: that multiple sits on a depressed earnings base management expects to inflect once the pivot laps.

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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

The TIKR Valuation Model, on its mid-case assumptions realized at 12/31/30, sets a target of roughly $123, implying a potential total return near 358% over the next 4.5 years, or about 40% annualized.

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Two revenue drivers carry it: new specialty growth (testosterone, menopause, and diagnostics) and international expansion via Eucalyptus. The model’s forecast assumes a revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate) near 37% and a net income margin recovering toward 5%, driven by operating leverage on the infrastructure Hims has already built. The primary risk is the GLP-1 margin drag extending past 2026 and stalling that recovery.

The upside: if new specialties and international scale on management’s timeline, that growth and margin recovery compound into a multi-bagger. The downside: if growth stays near recent levels and margins keep slipping, the Street’s ~$27 target is the honest number.

One clarification the model invites: the same screen shows a mid case near $440 and a high case near $683 by 2034E. Those are nine-year figures, not 2030 targets.

Conclusion

Watch Q2 revenue, due in early August. Management guided to $680 million to $700 million, or 25% to 28% growth. That’s the test of the entire pivot thesis. Anything in range says the transition is converting subscribers, and the 4% Q1 growth was the trough. A miss below $680 million validates the analysts who dragged their targets to the share price and points to a structural slowdown. When a company’s own model and its analyst coverage disagree by more than 300 points of return, one side is badly wrong. August starts telling you which.

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Should You Invest in Hims & Hers?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Hims & Hers, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Hims & Hers alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!