Toast’s Next Act Is AI. The Market Is Still Pricing the Last One.

Key Takeaways for Toast Stock as of July 2026

• 14 buy ratings, 5 outperforms and 10 holds put Wall Street firmly behind Toast stock, with a $34 mean target sitting just 15% above the current $30 level.
• With realization pegged at December 2030, TIKR’s mid-case model puts Toast stock’s target price at $63, a 113% total return and an 18% annualized rate.
• Toast raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $790 million to $810 million, though a stated reinvestment bias caps near-term margin upside.

Toast stock trades within 15% of Wall Street’s target, but TIKR’s model sees $63. Compare both price targets on TIKR for free →

Toast Stock Fell 25% Even as GAAP Operating Margin Topped 20%

Toast (TOST) stock slid 25% to $27 by the end of the first quarter of 2026, even as the restaurant technology platform posted revenue of $1.63 billion and GAAP operating income of $110 million, up more than 150% year over year. That growth pushed GAAP operating margin above 20% for the first time in company history.

Net income more than doubled to $126 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $179 million, a 34% margin. Annualized recurring revenue grew 26% to $2.2 billion, and total locations climbed 22% to 171,000 as the company added 7,000 net new sites in the quarter.

Even so, the quarter wasn’t without tension. Toast’s memory-chip supply costs are set to shave 150 basis points off 2026 EBITDA margins, with CFO Elena Gomez warning the hit grows larger in 2027 as inventory purchases build ahead of demand. Addressing the growth-versus-margin tradeoff directly, she told analysts on the Q1 call: “We have high conviction about our long-term 40% EBITDA plus margin profile. That has not changed.”

Beneath the hardware noise, competitive worry resurfaced too. Investors pressed management on DoorDash’s point-of-sale rollout in San Francisco, Phoenix and New York, a direct challenge to Toast Local’s restaurant marketplace ambitions. Management countered that its 20%-plus core market share and structural product depth have kept win rates intact.

Toast also kept returning capital through the noise, repurchasing 14 million shares for nearly $400 million year to date. That reduction in share count, paired with declining stock-based compensation, helped drive the doubling in GAAP EPS to $0.20.

Memory costs and DoorDash’s POS push rattled Toast stock investors this quarter. See how the model prices both risks on TIKR for free →

Wall Street Holds a Buy Rating on Toast Stock Near $30

Wall Street holds a consensus buy rating on Toast stock, with 14 buy ratings, 5 outperforms and 10 holds against zero sells. The mean price target sits at $34, just 15% above the stock’s $30 level, with the median at $35 and estimates ranging from $24 to $45 across 25 analysts. That mean has held roughly steady since March, suggesting the target cuts tied to hardware costs and competitive noise have largely run their course.

Wall Street Expects Toast Stock’s EBIT to Keep Outgrowing Its EBITDA Guide

Toast’s EBIT reached $170 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 47% year over year and expanding margin to 10.3%, even as adjusted EBITDA of $179 million grew a slower 35%.

Analysts expect EBIT of $190 million in the second quarter and $210 million in the third, gains of 29% and 31% respectively, both outpacing EBITDA growth of 20% and 24% over the same periods. The trajectory steepens further out. EBIT is projected at $200 million by year-end 2026 and $230 million by March 2027, growth of 40% and 36% that outpaces EBITDA’s 32% and 28% gains over the same two quarters.

Bulls point to that 40% EBIT growth as proof of operating leverage the Street’s own EBITDA guide doesn’t fully capture. Bears counter that the 150 basis point EBITDA margin hit management flagged for 2026 could widen further in 2027 and narrow the gap.

TIKR’s Model Puts Toast Stock’s Target at $63 Through Late 2030

TIKR’s mid-case model values Toast at $63 by December 2030, implying a 113% total return from the current price of $30, or 18% annualized over 4.5 years.

That return puts Toast stock’s re-rating potential among the stronger compounding cases in payments software, with the EBIT trajectory serving as one supporting thread alongside location growth and buybacks.

The target is reachable on the strength of the dynamics already in play: 171,000 live locations, up 22%, a 26% rise in annualized recurring revenue, and a GAAP operating margin above 20% for the first time. Continued buybacks, 14 million shares retired for nearly $400 million year to date, add further support to per-share value even as hardware costs weigh on the near term.

TIKR’s model sees Toast stock reaching $63 with an 18% annualized return. Check the full valuation build on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in Toast, Inc.?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Toast, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Toast, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

Access Professional Tools to Analyze TOST stock on TIKR for Free →

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!