Take-Two Stock Jumped 6% Friday. Here’s Where the Stock Is Headed in 2026

Key Stats for Take-Two Stock

• Friday’s Performance: 6%
• 52-Week Range: $188 to $266
• Valuation Model Target Price: About $285
• Implied Upside: Around 16%

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What Happened?

Take-Two Interactive Software stock jumped about 6% Friday to close near $247 per share as investors refocused on the earnings opportunity surrounding Grand Theft Auto VI. Rockstar’s flagship open-world franchise is Take-Two’s most important upcoming release, and the market is increasingly focused on whether its November 19, 2026 launch can deliver blockbuster initial sales and eventually create another durable source of recurring player spending. GTA V has sold more than 230 million copies, while the longevity of GTA Online shows why the franchise can remain economically important long after launch.

The stock rose specifically because Take-Two beat fiscal Q1 expectations, kept GTA VI on schedule, and reported unprecedented preorder demand. First-quarter net bookings reached $1.39 billion, slightly above analyst expectations and above the high end of management’s $1.32 billion to $1.37 billion guidance range. GAAP revenue increased 2% to $1.53 billion, while net bookings declined 3% year over year, so Friday’s rally reflected stronger execution and greater confidence in Take-Two’s upcoming release cycle rather than broad acceleration across every part of the current portfolio.

This week, management reiterated fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, representing about 20% growth at the midpoint, while CEO Strauss Zelnick said GTA VI preorders are “unprecedented and astonishing.” NBA 2K26, Take-Two’s annual basketball franchise and another important source of recurring player spending, finished a record year with more than 12 million units sold, up 9% from NBA 2K25, while recurrent consumer spending increased 7% and average daily active users rose 15%. Mobile remained softer with bookings down 7%, but stronger-than-expected NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto performance helped first-quarter bookings finish above guidance.

Expectations nevertheless remain demanding. Take-Two kept its $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion full-year bookings forecast unchanged despite extraordinary preorder interest, below the roughly $8.9 billion LSEG consensus, because management emphasized that preorders can still be canceled and have not yet become sales. Electronic Arts, one of Take-Two’s closest major gaming competitors, reported about $1.35 billion in quarterly net bookings this week and missed expectations, while Take-Two’s $1.39 billion result finished above its own guidance range. The contrast highlights stronger near-term execution at Take-Two, while Rockstar’s August 27 extended look at GTA VI provides the next major catalyst before the November release.

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Is Take-Two Stock Fairly Valued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR): Around 12%
• Operating Margins: Around 25%
• Exit P/E Multiple: Around 25x

Take-Two’s roughly 12% revenue growth assumption is primarily a bet on the GTA VI release cycle. TIKR estimates show revenue rising from about $6.7 billion in fiscal 2026 to around $8.5 billion in fiscal 2027 as the November launch begins contributing, meaning the model assumes a meaningful step-up in Take-Two’s scale rather than just another successful release.

The more important question is how much of that revenue reaches operating profit. TIKR’s EBIT chart shows margins rising from roughly 15% in fiscal 2026 to about 18% in fiscal 2027, then moving into the mid-20% range in later years. That trajectory makes the model’s roughly 25% operating-margin assumption more defensible, but it still requires Take-Two to convert GTA VI-driven scale into materially better profitability rather than simply generating a temporary surge in sales.

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Recurrent consumer spending already represented 84% of first-quarter net bookings, while GTA Online has demonstrated how Rockstar can keep players engaged long after the original purchase. Higher digital distribution, recurring in-game purchases, and Zynga’s direct-to-consumer mobile channel could further improve margins, and management said direct mobile payments are already having a material positive effect on mobile profitability.

The model’s roughly 25x exit P/E sits below the historical P/E averages displayed in TIKR of around 46x over one year, 41x over five years, and 36x over 10 years. Based on those assumptions, TIKR estimates a target price of about $285, implying around 16% total upside over roughly 2.6 years, or an annualized return of about 6%.

At roughly $247 per share, Take-Two appears fairly valued rather than deeply undervalued. Stronger returns depend on GTA VI exceeding already elevated expectations, creating durable recurring spending after launch, continued strength from NBA 2K, and EBIT margins progressing toward the mid-20% range as Take-Two converts its expected revenue step-up into lasting profit growth.

How Much Upside Does TTWO Stock Have From Here?

Investors can estimate Take-Two’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

1. Revenue Growth
2. Operating Margins
3. Exit P/E Multiple

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

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