Arm Stock Is Up 144% This Year. The Data Center Did Almost All the Work.

Key Takeaways for Arm Holdings Stock as of August 2026

• YTD Surge: Arm Holdings stock has returned 143.6% since the start of the year, closing at $279.44 on August 14, a 324.7% annualized pace over the 0.62-year stretch.
• Cloud AI Ramp: Data center royalty revenue more than doubled YoY again in Q1 FY27 (ended June 30), and Neoverse core shipments have topped 1.5B, with ~500M of those shipping in just the last nine months.
• Target Reset: The Street now carries 21 buys, 7 outperforms, 11 holds, 1 underperform, and 1 sell on ARM, with the $288 mean target sitting just 3% above the current price after the stock traded 24% above that target in June.
• Model Divergence: TIKR’s mid-case model targets $1,403 by March 2031, implying 402% total return and 42% annualized.

ARM stock is up 144% this year, and the Street’s mean target only just caught back up to it. See where analysts stand on TIKR for free →

Why Arm Stock’s 144% Run Is Being Driven by the Data Center, Not Phones

Arm Holdings (ARM) stock has climbed 143.6% since the start of the year, closing at $279.44 on August 14 after a run that took it from roughly $115 in January to a peak above $450 in late June. That is not a smartphone story. It is a cloud story.

Arm’s fiscal first-quarter results, reported July 29, show where the run actually comes from. Revenue rose 22% year over year to $1.29 billion, with royalty revenue up 22% to $715 million and licensing revenue up 23% to $574 million. CEO Rene Haas was direct about the driver on the earnings call: “Data center royalties more than doubled year-over-year once again as adoption of Arm Neoverse continues to expand.” Neoverse core shipments have now crossed 1.5 billion, and roughly a third of that total shipped in just the last nine months, a pace that took six years to first reach one billion.

The AGI CPU business is compounding that story. Arm unveiled the chip in March with a $1 billion supply target against $2 billion in customer demand. By the July call, CFO Jason Child said pipeline demand has grown past $2 billion and supply confidence has improved across wafers, substrates, test capacity and memory. Oracle has agreed to buy the chip, and Haas said Arm has secured supply for more than $1 billion worth of orders, with silicon revenue set to start showing up as its own reporting line once it clears 10% of total revenue in fiscal 2028.

Smartphones tell the opposite story, and that gap is worth sitting with. Child told analysts royalty growth guidance for the year has slipped from around 20% to the high teens, blaming memory-driven handset price hikes that are now hitting the mid and upper tiers, not just budget phones. Cloud AI is covering for that weakness, not eliminating it. That is the tension inside the 144% move: one segment is decelerating while another is compounding fast enough to mask it.

Arm stock’s year-to-date run is a data center re-rating riding on Neoverse and the new AGI CPU line, not a broad-based recovery, and the smartphone softness underneath is the risk that keeps the thesis from being a clean story.

Arm’s data center royalties doubled again last quarter while phone royalty growth is slowing. Break down the split yourself on TIKR for free →

Arm Stock’s Rally Outran Its Own Price Targets, Then Caught Back Up

Twenty-one analysts currently rate Arm stock a buy, 7 call it an outperform, and 11 sit at hold, alongside 1 underperform and 1 sell. The mean target of $288 sits just 3% above the $279 close, a gap that looks almost boring next to where this relationship stood two months ago.

It was not boring in June. The stock closed the June 30 mark at $354.57 while the mean target sat at $286.41, meaning ARM traded roughly 24% above where the average analyst thought it belonged. That is the mirror image of where coverage started the year: at the end of 2025, the mean target of $164.85 sat 51% above a beaten-down $109.31 close.

Analysts have spent 2026 chasing a stock that first collapsed well below their targets, then blew past them, and has now settled back to roughly matching consensus. Coverage has widened through that whole swing, from 34 estimates a year ago to 38 today, which suggests the Street is not stepping back from the name even as the price target math keeps resetting.

TIKR Values Arm Stock at $1,403, Pricing In a Decade of AI Infrastructure Growth

TIKR’s mid-case model targets $1,403 for Arm stock by March 2031, implying 402% total return from the current $279 price, or 42% annualized over 4.6 years.

That annualized rate sits well above what a mature semiconductor IP licensor would normally command, and it only works if Arm’s data center and AGI CPU businesses keep compounding at something close to their current pace rather than the smartphone segment’s high-single-digit trajectory. The model’s case rests on the same numbers driving Section 1: Neoverse royalties that have doubled for multiple straight quarters and an AGI CPU pipeline that has grown from $1 billion to over $2 billion in the space of one quarter, with Haas telling analysts his confidence in fulfilling that demand “has increased in the past 90 days.”

TIKR’s model puts ARM stock at $1,403, a 402% return by 2031. Pull up the full valuation breakdown on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in Arm Holdings plc?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Arm Holdings plc stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Arm Holdings plc alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

Access Professional Tools to Analyze ARM stock on TIKR for Free →

Looking for New Opportunities?

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!