CAVA’s Same-Restaurant Sales Grew 9% in Q2. The Stock Is Still 26% Below Its High.

Key Stats for CAVA Stock

52-Week Range: $43.41 – $98.79
Street Mean Target: ~$85
Market Cap: ~$8.6B
NTM P/E: 112x
LTM EBIT Margin: 5.7%
Q2 2026 Revenue: $368.4M (up 31.3% YoY)
Total Restaurant Count: 476 (up 19.6% YoY)

Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>

A Category Winner Running Well Below Its Peak

CAVA (CAVA) has delivered consistent growth at a pace few restaurant concepts ever sustain. Revenue grew 31.3% year over year in Q2, same-restaurant sales increased 9% with guest traffic up 5.3%, and the company opened 17 net new locations.

CEO Brett Schulman said the newest restaurants “continue to outperform our expectations, reinforcing the proven portability of our concept.” The stock jumped roughly 18% on earnings day and has since given back some of those gains. At around $73, shares sit about 26% below the 52-week high of $98.79.

CAVA (pronounced “KAH-vah”) is a Mediterranean fast-casual chain, think a Greek-inspired Chipotle, with customizable bowls and pitas built around ingredients like hummus, falafel, harissa, and roasted vegetables.

The brand appeals strongly to health-conscious consumers and has shown an ability to drive traffic across demographic groups.

The company currently operates 476 restaurants across 29 states and Washington, D.C., and is actively entering new markets, including Indiana, Ohio, and Las Vegas. Management targets at least 1,000 domestic locations by 2032, which would represent more than double the current footprint.

The revenue chart shows the trajectory since the company’s 2023 IPO. Full-year revenue reached $729 million in 2023, climbed to $964 million in 2024, and accelerated to $1.18 billion in 2025. Consensus estimates project continued momentum toward $1.5 billion in 2026, $1.8 billion in 2027, and crossing $3 billion by 2030 as the restaurant count compounds.

H1 2026 results suggest the company is tracking toward the upper end of its guidance, with same-restaurant sales of 9.4% for the first half running well ahead of the full-year 4.5% to 6.5% guidance range.

See historical and forward estimates for Salesforce stock (It’s free!) >>>

From Losses to Operating Leverage

What makes CAVA genuinely interesting beyond the growth rate is the trajectory of its operating income. The company was losing money through 2022, reflecting the capital intensity of early-stage restaurant expansion. Then something shifted.

Operating income turned positive in 2023 at $15.7 million, nearly tripled to $48.75 million in 2024, and reached $60.21 million in 2025.

The inflection is meaningful because it demonstrates that CAVA’s unit economics work at scale. Restaurant-level profit margin came in at 25.7% in Q2 2026, and the 2024 restaurant cohort is already the company’s highest-performing vintage by same-restaurant sales.

A brief headwind emerged late in Q2 when a Cyclospora lettuce outbreak in the broader food industry sparked consumer anxiety about fresh produce.

CAVA’s supply chain excludes Mexican leafy greens, and its menu contains no iceberg lettuce, but the noise created short-term friction. CFO Tricia Tolivar noted on the Q2 call that same-restaurant sales have since recovered to mid-single-digit growth.

See how Salesforce performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>

What the Valuation Model Says About CAVA Stock

CAVA’s valuation is the most honest tension in the whole investment case. At 112 times forward earnings, the market is paying a substantial premium for a restaurant company, even one growing revenue at 30-plus percent.

The stock’s premium reflects the belief that CAVA will compound its restaurant count and same-store sales for years, that margins will expand meaningfully as the concept matures, and that the long-term unit potential of 1,000-plus locations is achievable.

Any stumble in that narrative, whether from slower traffic, a food safety event, or margin compression, gets punished quickly.

TIKR’s valuation model targets around $224 per share based on mid-case assumptions, implying roughly a 204% total return from current levels over approximately four and a half years.

The annualized return works out to around 29% per year. The model assumes roughly 19% annual revenue growth and net income margins expanding toward 7%, consistent with the direction CAVA is heading.

Importantly, the P/E multiple is assumed to remain essentially flat in the mid-case, meaning these returns come entirely from earnings growth rather than further multiple expansion. A more extended scenario to 2034 puts the mid-case price near $427 at roughly a 23% annualized IRR.

Should You Buy CAVA Stock?

CAVA is one of the most compelling long-term restaurant concepts to emerge in years, and the operating results consistently back up that claim.

Nine percent same-restaurant sales growth, 31% revenue growth, and expanding operating income all point to a brand that genuinely resonates and unit economics that work. The path to 1,000-plus restaurants, if executed, would make today’s $8.6 billion market cap look conservative.

The risks are equally clear. At 112 times forward earnings, there is virtually no room for error. Any deceleration in same-restaurant traffic, any food safety scare that directly affects CAVA, any sustained margin pressure from labor or ingredient costs, or any sign that new markets underperform the existing portfolio would compress the multiple sharply.

Full-year guidance of 4.5% to 6.5% same-store sales growth is notably conservative relative to H1 performance, which management has acknowledged reflects caution around the cyclospora environment and macro uncertainty. Investors buying at current levels are paying for a long, consistent execution runway, one CAVA has earned through results, but which is never guaranteed.

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for AMD stock (It’s free!) >>>

Looking for New Opportunities?

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!