Key Takeaways for Texas Instruments Stock as of August 2026
- Sell-the-News Slide: TXN stock has fallen 19% over the past three months, with most of the drop landing after a Q2 beat-and-raise report on July 22.
- Priced for Perfection: Shares were up roughly 70% YTD heading into that print, more than triple the S&P 500 tech sector’s 18% gain.
- Street Still Bullish: Analysts carry 17 buys, 3 outperforms, 14 holds, 1 no opinion, and 2 sells, with a mean target of $325, 24% above the $262 price.
- Model Upside: TIKR’s mid-case model targets $619 by 2030.
Why Texas Instruments Stock Fell 19% After a Beat-and-Raise Quarter
Texas Instruments (TXN) stock has dropped 19% over the past three months, a slide that began the day after the company beat Wall Street’s second-quarter estimates and guided the third quarter above consensus. Second-quarter revenue came in at $5.46 billion, up 23% year over year and ahead of the $5.25 billion analysts expected. Earnings per share rose 52% to $2.14. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion, above the $5.61 billion estimate, and shares still fell more than 3% in after-hours trading that night.
CEO Haviv Ilan wasn’t describing a company running into trouble on the July 22 call. Asked whether the strength would carry into the back half of the year, he said: “I think we — right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that — of a stronger demand, and it’s broader.” Industrial revenue climbed roughly 30% year over year, data center revenue doubled, and automotive inflected higher for the first time in several quarters. That’s the picture management painted the same day the stock started sliding.
The gap between the guide and the reaction traces back to where the stock stood before the print. TXN shares were up about 70% year to date heading into the July 22 report, more than three times the S&P 500 technology sector’s 18% gain over the same stretch. A rally that steep leaves little room for anything short of flawless, and even a genuine beat wasn’t enough. Summit Insights Group flagged that dynamic the next morning, warning of “a higher risk profile for TXN stock into 2027,” a call about valuation, not the business.
The broader semiconductor tape didn’t help. The session after TI’s report, Alphabet’s higher AI capital spending plans and Tesla’s negative free cash flow dragged the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and TXN slipped further alongside the group even as its own numbers held up. The 19% decline reads less like a broken thesis than a valuation reset against one of the strongest operating quarters TI has posted in years.
Texas Instruments Stock’s Target Keeps Climbing as the Price Falls
Analyst coverage on TXN stock currently splits 17 buys, 3 outperforms, 14 holds, 1 no opinion, and 2 sells. The mean price target sits at $325, 24% above the current $262 price, built from 31 published estimates.
That gap didn’t open because analysts got nervous. Back on June 30, the stock closed at $298 and the mean target sat at $296, essentially in line with the price. By August 26, the price had fallen to $262 while the mean target climbed to $325. Analysts raised their numbers through the same stretch the stock was sliding, not the other way around, and the same pattern holds further back: the mean target moved from $189 at the end of 2025 to $222 by March and $296 by June, tracking a business accelerating faster than the multiple the market was willing to pay for it.
TIKR Values Texas Instruments Stock at $619, Pricing In the AI Buildout
TIKR’s mid-case model values Texas Instruments at $619 by December 2030, implying 137% total return from the current price of $262, or 22% annualized over roughly 4.3 years.
That return profile places TXN stock well above what a low-double-digit revenue grower typically commands, since a large share of the model’s return comes from margin expansion and a multiple recovery rather than raw sales growth alone.
The case leans on the same figures management laid out on the July call: data center revenue doubling, industrial demand still running below its 2022 peak, and pricing increases that only began phasing in during the second half of 2026. Both the Street’s $325 mean target and TIKR’s $619 model target sit well above where the stock trades today, and neither number depends on treating the Q2 beat as a one-off.
Should You Invest in Texas Instruments Incorporated?
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Pull up Texas Instruments Incorporated stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
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