Apple’s September 9 Event Could Bring Its First Foldable. Is It Too Late to Buy Near Record Highs?

Key Stats for Apple Stock

• Current Price: $313.45
• Target Price (Mid): ~$478
• Street Target: ~$324
• Potential Total Return: ~53%
• Annualized IRR: ~11% / year

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What Happened?

Apple (AAPL) confirmed on August 26 that it will hold a September 9 event under the tagline “Surprise and shine,” widely expected to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Apple’s first foldable, reportedly called the iPhone Ultra, though Apple has not confirmed the product. It will be the first keynote led by John Ternus, who will become CEO on September 1.

The reveal lands with shares at $313.45, roughly 9% below the all-time high set in late July. So a buyer today is paying near-record prices for a new product category that is still unconfirmed, right as the cost of the memory inside every Apple device is spiking. That is the discomfort worth naming: a genuine new catalyst on one side, a guided lower gross margin on the other. 

A Foldable, a New CEO, and a Rare $400 Call

Reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman points to the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max as iterative updates, with the foldable as the genuinely new thing. First-run supply is expected to be tight, so the near-term unit contribution is likely small even if demand is strong.

The Street is starting to price the optionality. On August 17, Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Apple to Buy from Neutral and lifted its target to $400 from $260, an unusually large raise on a name this size. The firm built the call on a foldable-led lift to iPhone average selling prices and a possible reset in Apple’s AI strategy, projecting iPhone revenue 3% to 14% above consensus through fiscal 2030. That is a forecast, not a delivered number, and Redburn flagged its own risks: foldable production delays, hinge durability, display crease visibility, and Apple’s continued reliance on third-party AI models.

The reimagined Siri AI shown at WWDC has drawn strong beta feedback, but the EU and China rollouts remain unresolved. The bull case treats the 2.5 billion active-device installed base as the launchpad for AI monetization, and the stock already reflects a good deal of that belief.

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What $313 Already Prices In

Revenue rose 16% to a June-quarter record $109.4 billion, iPhone grew 22% to $54.3 billion, Mac jumped 29%, and Services set a record at $30.7 billion. Diluted EPS of $2.02 was up 29%, though about $0.11 came from one-time tariff refunds.

On his final earnings call, then-CEO Tim Cook said the supply pinch was not a supplier problem but a forecasting one: “It’s a demand forecast issue to be candid, where the iPhone and the Mac are both doing remarkably better than we thought they would do.” The cost side is the offset. Cook called memory pricing “what I would characterize as, a 100-year flood,” which is why September-quarter gross margin was guided to 47% to 48%, down from the 50.1% Apple reported in June. CFO Kevan Parekh said more than 100% of the sequential margin decline traces to memory costs.

Apple trades at about 34x NTM earnings, a premium to its own history and far above hardware peers. On NTM P/E, Xiaomi sits near 24x, Logitech near 17x, and Lenovo near 11x. Apple’s Services mix and installed base justify a premium, but 34x prices in a smooth foldable and AI transition, not a bumpy one. At this multiple, the margin trajectory has to hold for the stock to keep working. 

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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $313.45
• Target Price (Mid): ~$478
• Potential Total Return: ~53%
• Annualized IRR: ~11% / year

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Two revenue drivers carry the number: a Services business compounding on 2.5 billion active devices, and an iPhone line whose average selling price steps up as the foldable and premium Pro models mix higher. The margin driver is Services, which runs near 76% gross margin and pulls blended profitability up as it outgrows hardware. The primary risk is memory cost inflation compressing product gross margin faster than Services mix can offset, exactly the dynamic management flagged for September and beyond.

The mid-case assumes revenue growth of around 9% and a net income margin near 27%. A foldable that extends the premium cycle, plus normalizing memory costs, would push results toward the top of that range, while persistent memory inflation and slow AI monetization would pull them toward the bottom. Note that TIKR’s mid-case $478 target is a model output sitting well above the Street mean of about $324, which reflects a shorter horizon and a more conservative multiple.

Conclusion

September 9 is the near-term test: watch whether the foldable’s pricing and reported first-run supply suggest a category that can move the needle. The harder number is the December-quarter gross margin, reported in late January. Above roughly 47% signals Apple is managing the memory cycle; a slip below confirms the bears’ fear that the flood reaches the bottom line before Services can bail it out. Near record highs, that margin line separates a buyer who gets paid from one who pays up.

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Should You Invest in Apple?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!