Wildfires – from storms to heatwaves – Portugal Resident

The world is heading into another period of “dangerous heat”. This is according to a new UN report, warning that “it’s nearly certain that global temperatures over the next five years will stay at or near record levels” as climate change accelerates across land and sea.

For Portugal, 2026 has already been a year of extreme weather – from floods to fires. In early February, the country declared a situation of calamity after it was hit by two devastating storms just a week apart. Storms Leonardo and Kristin brought torrential rain and flooding, leading to fallen trees snapping power lines and people being evacuated from their homes by boats.

The strong winds ripped off tree canopies and toppled trees, leading to leaves and vegetation covering the ground in many places. As temperatures rose to well above average during May, this vegetation is now drying out and is becoming tinder dry – the perfect fuel for wildfires. In Leiria, the area that was worst hit, between five and eight million trees were felled by the storms, according to some estimates.

Felled trees mean that some roads are still blocked, which could hamper the efforts of emergency services in the event of wildfires. The prime minister, a few days ago, stressed that the government is mobilizing “many thousands of personnel” and “many dozens of entities” in a program supported by €40 million aimed at clearing the forest road network and reducing combustible material in woodlands and forests.

By late May, in 22 municipalities, 10,000 kilometres of roads, rural tracks, firebreaks and land in need of clearing have been identified and, in one week, 3,000 kilometres have already been cleared, practically one third, he said.

The May heatwaves

While Europe is no stranger to intense summer heat, the end of May 2026 heatwave was something else! A massive and persistent high-pressure system trapped a hot air mass that had moved from North Africa over Western and Central Europe.

The upper-level ridge pattern, or very warm air mass in the higher altitudes, also known as the Upper High (or blocking high), usually works like a lid on a pot. This weather pattern brings high, and sometimes record-breaking, temperatures to the region below.

The highest temperature recorded in May in Portugal was 40.3ºC, a record for the month. In terms of the average number of days in a heatwave, this episode is classified as the third longest, as at June 1, with 9.3 days (highest in 1964 with 9.7 days).

At the time of writing this feature, the rural fire risk is forecast to increase considerably starting June 10, with around 90% of the mainland at very high risk and above, meaning 80 municipalities at maximum risk. Checking back over our records, this is the highest number since September last year, where there were many fires including those of high intensity, some burning for several days.

Earlier this year, I referred to a study published in December 2021, which found that the wildfire burned area variability is influenced by the precipitation anomaly in spring and the occurrence of abnormal atmospheric patterns that generate very hot and dry days in the western Iberian Peninsula during summer.

Most (97 %) of the total number of extreme wildfires (with a burned area over 5000 ha) occurred during heatwaves. It appears that this year we are following this pattern as we have experienced a heatwave in May, a month in which record temperatures have been registered. We have also experienced a considerable increase in rural fires, but fortunately no major ones – yet!

A heatwave occurs when, over a period of at least six consecutive days, the daily maximum temperature exceeds the average daily maximum temperature for the respective month by 5°C.

Impact of climate change

Globally, recent extreme weather events have caused unprecedented damages and impacts on communities, economies, and the environment. Climate change is the key driver behind the growing occurrence of extreme wildfires. Under projected warnings, wildfire frequency and severity are estimated to increase, calling for a fundamental shift in wildfire management to focus on disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and wildfire risk prevention.

We all need to be prepared. As a first step, we need to understand the risks, as without understanding them, we can’t manage them and be prepared.

Therefore, sharing knowledge, experience and co-operation between countries is vitally important in tackling a common threat. In global terms, vulnerabilities have increased and we are more and more likely – in various parts of the world – to have more complex and larger climate-related events. International cooperation is absolutely critical in this matter.

Developing a “culture of preparedness”

Bearing this in mind, for us in Portugal, what can we expect this year? In May, we had record air temperatures and the type of weather conditions more associated with July. At the same time, however, there was intense rain showers in the north with hail and thunderstorms.

This shows that we do face complex and unseasonable weather patterns. As such, being aware of the risks we and our property are exposed to is even more important than before. All this means that we need to not only be prepared, but also to inculcate within the population a “culture of preparedness”, meaning that we must learn how to live with fires, and how to best deal with them, with the aim of reducing their impact on populations and communities.

How we can do our part

This means we really must be on our guard to ensure that we do everything possible to prevent fires. This means: a) studying the weather forecast and fire risks each day (we publish these on our Facebook page); b) ensuring that we comply with the government fire risk regulations specific to where we live; c) carrying out land cleaning around our property, to be completed by June 30; d) avoiding any action that could cause a fire, remembering that ground is tinder dry, and will become even dryer as we head into the summer, and, therefore, fires can start and spread very quickly.

The future

Heatwaves represent a challenge for the population in Portugal, requiring special care to preserve health and safety and minimize the impacts. It is crucial that the authorities, health services, and the general population are prepared to deal with these extreme conditions. Additionally, raising awareness about the causes of heatwaves and the importance of climate change mitigation measures are crucial to addressing this long-term challenge.

Previous article by David Thomas: Preparing for a safe summer