Figma Has Rebounded 60% Off Its Lows. Is FIG Still a Buy at $27?

Key Stats for Figma Stock

• Current Price: $27.10
• Target Price (Mid): ~$82
• Street Target: ~$31
• Potential Total Return: ~201%
• Annualized IRR: ~29% / year

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What Happened?

Figma, Inc. (FIG) bottomed near $17 in late June, a stock left for dead barely eleven months after one of the year’s loudest IPOs. It now trades at $27.10, a rebound of roughly 60% off that low. And it happened while the company was still posting GAAP losses, still spending heavily on AI compute, and still facing the largest share unlock of its short public life. Buyers who stepped in near the bottom have been paid. The harder question is for everyone looking at it now.

The June panic had a clear cause: fear that AI-native tools would hollow out design software, stacked on relentless post-IPO lock-up supply. Two things changed. Figma’s Q2 print, reported August 5, gave the growth side real ammunition, and the technical overhang that scared everyone has now triggered rather than loomed.

The Bottom Held Because the Business Never Broke

Shares fell 78.21% from peak to the June 25 low, a decline that implied the business was failing. It was not. Q2 revenue grew 48% year over year to $370.08 million, beating the $351.52 million consensus by more than 5% and marking a third straight quarter of accelerating growth. Net dollar retention held at 136%, and paid customers spending over $100,000 a year grew 46%.

One of the world’s largest technology companies expanded its Figma contract to more than 25,000 paid seats in Q2, and now holds more paid seats for engineers than for designers. As CEO Dylan Field put it on the call, “as companies reimagine how they build products with AI, they are doubling down on Figma.” The line matters because the bear thesis claims the opposite, that AI makes Figma less necessary. Engineers buying design seats is early evidence against it.

Non-GAAP operating margin fell to 10% in Q2 as Figma absorbed the cost of AI inference on products that do not yet charge for it, alongside the seasonal expense of its Config conference. That is a deliberate choice, and it is why the stock trades on faith in future monetization rather than current profit.

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The Overhang Cleared, but the Multiple Did Not

Roughly 77.7 million shares held by extended lock-up holders, worth about $2.1 billion at current prices, were set to unlock on the earlier of two trading days after the Q2 release or August 31. That event is now triggered rather than feared, which removes the supply cliff that kept buyers away. The sell-side reaction to the quarter was split, not euphoric. RBC raised its target to $28 from $22 on August 6 while keeping a Sector Perform rating, and Bank of America’s Tal Liani lifted his target on August 19, citing AI monetization. Others trimmed: Morgan Stanley cut to $33 from $38, and Citi eased its target lower, both holding non-buy ratings. Consensus still sits at nine Holds against five buy-side ratings, near a $31 mean, which signals reduced downside rather than conviction.

Figma trades near 100 times next-twelve-month earnings, against Adobe (ADBE) at about 11 times. On forward sales, Figma sits near 8 times versus 4 times for Adobe. Some premium is earned: Figma is guiding to forward growth near 40% while carrying a 79% gross margin that leaves room to convert that growth into profit. But a nine-fold gap on earnings is not a growth premium; it is a bet that Figma becomes far more than a design tool. That is the ambition management is selling, a shift into code, motion, and AI agents to become “the canvas for full stack creation.” Whether that market is real is exactly what the multiple argues about.

Figma still reports GAAP losses, and heavy stock-based compensation continues to dilute per-share value even as the top line compounds. At 100 times earnings, the market is pricing years of clean execution with no room to disappoint.

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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $27.10
• Target Price (Mid): ~$82
• Potential Total Return: ~201%
• Annualized IRR: ~29% / year

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Using TIKR’s mid-case scenario, realized at the end of 2030, the model targets around $82, implying roughly 201% total return and a 29% annualized IRR from $27.10. Two drivers carry that number:

• AI credit monetization, now live and contributing a full quarter for the first time.
• Seat expansion in large accounts, where two-thirds of customers above $10,000 in ARR added seats at renewal.

The margin driver is operating leverage: a roughly 79% gross margin lets revenue flow toward profit as management uses model routing and first-party models to hold down inference costs. The primary risk is dilution: heavy stock-based compensation and persistent GAAP losses erode per-share value if profitability keeps slipping to the right, and the mid-case revenue CAGR of around 20% assumes AI-native rivals do not erode pricing power.

• Upside: AI converts from threat to tailwind, credit consumption compounds, and the market re-rates a platform it mispriced in a panic.
• Downside: losses and dilution persist, growth decelerates toward 30%, and the stock drifts back toward the Street’s roughly $31 mean.

Conclusion

The rebound off the lows was the easy part, powered by a triggered overhang and a growth print that refused to break. The next leg has to come from something harder: proof that the AI products still sitting in beta convert to paid credits. Watch Figma’s next quarterly report, due this fall, for two numbers. Net dollar retention holding above 135% with credit consumption still climbing would confirm AI is a tailwind and justify the buyers who chased it to $27. Retention slipping toward the high 120s, with revenue growth dropping below the mid-30s, would hand the skeptics their proof that the run got ahead of the business. At 100 times earnings, Figma has no room to disappoint.

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Should You Invest in Figma?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!