Applied Digital Has a $36 Billion Contract Backlog and Trades at Half Its 52-Week High

Key Stats for Applied Digital Stock

• 52-Week Range: $11.40 – $50.73
• Current Price: $23.22
• Street Target Price (Mean): ~$73
• NTM EV/EBITDA: ~36x
• YTD Return: -17.4%
• Market Cap: ~$6.7B

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A $36 Billion Contract Backlog and Revenue Growing 70% Per Year

Applied Digital (APLD) designs, builds, and owns large-scale data centers engineered specifically for high-performance computing workloads, meaning the company builds facilities that rent out massive GPU server capacity to AI companies running the kind of intensive compute needed for model training and inference.

This is not a general-purpose data center business. Applied Digital uses proprietary direct-to-chip liquid cooling to support rack densities that conventional data centers physically cannot handle, which is what allows it to attract hyperscaler customers willing to sign long-term leases.

The scale of what has been committed is worth pausing on. As of May 31, 2026, Applied Digital had executed long-term leases representing approximately 1,410 megawatts of contracted critical IT load across five campuses in North Dakota and Louisiana, representing roughly $36 billion of total contracted revenue over the initial 15-year base lease terms.

The first 100-megawatt data center at Polaris Forge 1 in North Dakota became operational in October 2025. A second building delivering 75 megawatts came online June 30, 2026, bringing total live capacity at that campus to 175 megawatts, with additional buildings and entirely new campuses in various stages of construction.

Full-year FY2026 revenue came in at $611 million, up from $215 million the prior year, driven by the ramp of HPC hosting revenue as buildings came online. The revenue chart shows just how steep the trajectory is expected to become as contracted capacity scales.

Consensus estimates show revenue reaching $698 million in FY2027, then accelerating sharply to $1.8 billion in FY2028, $2.7 billion in FY2029, and $6.1 billion by FY2031 as contracted megawatts come online sequentially. Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $87.5 million in FY2026.

The company remains deeply unprofitable on a GAAP basis due to depreciation, stock-based compensation, and the capital costs of building out infrastructure ahead of revenue.

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Analysts Think the Stock Is Worth Three Times the Current Price

The gap between where Applied Digital trades and where analysts think it should trade is one of the widest in the market right now. With 8 buys, 2 outperform, and 1 hold among 11 analysts covering the stock, the mean price target has steadily risen from $10.50 in May 2025 to $73.32 today, even as the stock has fallen sharply from its June high of around $47.

The target-to-price ratio of 315.8% means analysts collectively believe the stock is worth more than three times its current price. The low target among analysts is $36.50, still representing roughly a 57% upside from current levels, while the high is $109.

The spread reflects genuine disagreement about execution pace, financing conditions, and the ultimate margin profile of the HPC hosting business at scale. Analysts who are bullish point to the contracted backlog and the scarcity of purpose-built AI data center infrastructure.

Those who are more cautious flag rising debt, ongoing dilution, and the capital intensity of building before revenue arrives.

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What the Volatility Is Actually Telling You

Applied Digital’s drawdowns chart captures something no financial table can convey: what it actually feels like to own this stock.

The max drawdown reached 53.23% as of July 29, 2026, and the chart shows this is not a one-time event. The stock dropped nearly 48% from peak to trough in March and April, recovered almost entirely by May, then collapsed again by more than 50% through late July.

A stock with a beta of 5.68 moves violently in response to shifts in sentiment, financing news, and broader AI infrastructure narratives, often independently of near-term fundamentals.

The current drawdown is happening alongside an analyst consensus that has continued to rise.

The disconnect between deteriorating price action and improving analyst conviction is the central tension investors need to understand before making a decision here.

Should You Buy Applied Digital Stock?

Applied Digital’s contracted backlog, execution on Polaris Forge, and the genuine scale of AI infrastructure demand make a compelling long-term case. The revenue trajectory, if it materializes, would justify the current market cap many times over. The risks are substantial.

The company carries significant debt, aggressively burns cash while building, and consistently dilutes shareholders through stock-based compensation. GAAP profitability is years away under any reasonable scenario.

The stock’s volatility means that being right about the long-term thesis offers no protection against a 50% interim decline. Applied Digital is a high-upside, high-risk infrastructure bet on the AI compute buildout. Investors should size their position accordingly.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!