Portuguese companies continue to forecast team expansions between July and September, but they are adopting a more cautious stance in hiring decisions.
According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2026, the Net Employment Outlook in Portugal stands at +18%, 11 percentage points lower than in the previous quarter.
The indicator shows that 35% of Portuguese employers plan to increase their workforce in the coming months, while 47% intend to maintain current staffing levels and 17% anticipate reductions.
Despite the slowdown, Portugal’s outlook remains above the figure recorded in the same period of 2025, when employer sentiment stood at +16%.
This trend reflects a labour market that remains positive but is being shaped by a more uncertain international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and economic slowdown across several European markets. Portugal also remains below the global average, which stands at +26%.
Companies continue to hire, but with greater caution
Rui Teixeira, Country Manager of ManpowerGroup Portugal, states that the results show companies still willing to hire, but more cautious in the face of a demanding international environment. He emphasises that the Portuguese economy continues to show signs of resilience, supported by private consumption, investment, the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR), and the dynamism of sectors such as construction, industry, and retail. But, geopolitical uncertainty, energy costs, and weaker international economic momentum are leading many organisations to reassess growth plans. This caution is reflected in a slowdown in hiring intentions for the 3rd quarter of 2026.
Company growth remains the main reason employers cite for expanding their teams – but it has lost importance, says the ManPower survey. Only 34% indicate this reason, 10 percentage points fewer than in the previous quarter. The need for resources for specific projects comes next (mentioned by 24% of employers).
A talent shortage also remains evident in the Portuguese market. Among employers, 22% report the need to fill positions that remained open in the previous quarter, while 18% point to vacancies that have been unfilled since earlier quarters. In addition, 17% cite the search for new skills as a reason for hiring, highlighting the growing importance of technological transformation and the adaptation of professional profiles.
Automation gains weight in workforce reductions
Among companies that expect to reduce staff, economic challenges are the main reason, cited by 27% of respondents. This is followed by restructuring or downsizing and workforce adjustments to changes in demand, both mentioned by 23%.
Automation is becoming more relevant in this context. According to the study, 20% of employers planning cuts say that automation has reduced the need for certain roles, an increase of five percentage points compared with the previous quarter. This factor moves from seventh to fourth place among the main reasons for workforce reductions.
Despite international instability, only 13% of Portuguese employers identify geopolitical challenges as one of the main reasons for reducing their number of workers.
Construction and Real Estate lead highest ‘net employment outlook’
Hiring outlooks remain positive across most of sectors analyzed, although there are signs of a broad slowdown. Construction and Real Estate lead with the highest Net Employment Outlook, at +36%, despite a decline of ten percentage points compared with the previous quarter.
Technology and IT Services follows at +32%, followed by Industry at +24%, and Trade and Logistics at +22%. Meanwhile, the Utilities and Natural Resources sector and Industry show the smallest quarter-on-quarter declines.
Conversely, the Information Technology and Services sector, which includes Technology and IT Services, shows a neutral outlook of 0%, reflecting a drop of 20 percentage points compared with the previous quarter and 36 percentage points year over year.
Greater LIsbon and south with ‘strongest optimism’
All Portuguese regions maintain positive hiring intentions for the third quarter of 2026, but Greater Lisbon and the southern region stand out with the highest forecasts, both at +24%.
In the south, however, the forecast falls by nine percentage points, while Greater Lisbon shows greater stability, with an increase of two percentage points. The Central Region records the largest decline compared with the previous quarter, down 25 percentage points, followed by Greater Porto, down 20 percentage points.
The analysis by company size also shows positive intentions across all categories. Large companies with up to 1,000 employees present the strongest forecast, at +26%, followed by microenterprises at +25%, which have grown by three percentage points compared with the previous quarter.
Small and medium-sized enterprises, however, show signs of greater caution. Small companies report a forecast of +19% and medium-sized companies +21%, both slowing compared with the previous quarter. This result is significant given the weight of these categories in Portugal’s business landscape.
Europe at lowest level of last five years
Globally, the Net Employment Outlook stands at +26% for the third quarter of 2026, five percentage points lower than in the previous quarter, but still two points above the figure recorded in the same period of 2025.
The slowdown is widespread: 32 of the 41 countries and territories analysed report a decline in hiring intentions compared with the previous quarter. Even so, 42% of organisations worldwide still expect to increase their workforce.
North America shows the strongest outlook, at +40%, driven by the United States, where the projection reaches +45%. Europe, by contrast, records an outlook of just +14%, the lowest level of the last five years, amid economic deceleration, high energy costs, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
The quarterly ManpowerGroup study surveyed 40,500 employers across 42 countries and territories.
Source: Executive Digest
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