Key Takeaways for Intuit Stock as of August 2026
- YTD Collapse: Intuit stock has fallen 45% over the trailing 0.62 years through August 14, sliding from a $785 close on July 31, 2025 to $346 as AI-driven tax competition intensified.
- Analyst Split: Thirty-five analysts rate Intuit stock: 19 buys, 5 outperforms, 9 holds, 1 underperform, and 1 sell, while a separate group of 33 analysts publish a $451 mean price target, 31% above the current price.
- Model Gap: TIKR’s mid-case model targets $592 by 2030, implying 71.2% total return and 14.5% annualized gains from here.
- Target Reset: Mean targets fell from $824 to $451 since July 2025.
Why Intuit Stock Cratered 45% in 2026 After Its AI Reckoning
Intuit (INTU) stock closed at $785 on July 31, 2025, the high point in the price history you shared, and has fallen 45% since, closing at $346 on August 14, 2026. Zoomed out further, the stock is down 31% over the trailing three years and up 7,369% over the trailing 29.25 years, a 15.9% annualized return that makes this year’s drop look sharply out of character.
The decline did not happen in one move. Shares fell to $668 by October 31, 2025, as early AI-disruption worries began working through software valuations broadly, then to $499 by January 31, 2026, a further 25% in three months. Concerns that generative AI could replicate the guided, rules-based help that made TurboTax and QuickBooks sticky kept building through the spring, and shares closed April 30 at $389.
The next leg down came with Intuit’s fiscal third-quarter report on May 20. Revenue came in at $8.56 billion, up 10% year over year, alongside two disclosures: a plan to cut roughly 3,000 roles, about 17% of the global workforce, and a trimmed TurboTax revenue forecast to roughly $5.28 billion at the midpoint, down from about $5.32 billion, even as full-year guidance rose overall. CEO Sasan Goodarzi framed the cuts as urgency rather than retreat, telling investors the company needed to “move faster and operate with fewer layers of management.” Shares fell more than 20% intraday and never got the ground back.
The detail investors fixated on sat inside the TurboTax numbers themselves. Intuit expected paid online units to grow just 2%, total online units to decline roughly 2%, and e-file share to fall approximately one point, while ARPU was expected to increase about 11%.
Intuit was raising prices on a shrinking user base, the pattern AI-native alternatives are built to exploit.
Goldman Sachs added to the pressure on June 2, cutting Intuit to Sell from Neutral and pointing to a widening field of AI-powered tax preparation tools it expects to compress TurboTax’s pricing power over the next two years. Shares closed at $261 on June 30, the lowest month-end observation in the data used here.
The 45% decline since January is not one event. It is the market repricing Intuit’s guided-help moat against a wave of AI competitors it never had to account for a year ago.
Legal Scrutiny and a Partial Rebound Weigh on Intuit Stock
BFA Law and Pomerantz announced inquiries in June concerning whether Intuit made misleading statements about TurboTax’s competitive pricing position. A securities class action was subsequently filed against Intuit in August. The claims remain allegations and have not been adjudicated.
Intuit Stock’s Price Targets Have Fallen Slower Than the Stock Itself
Thirty-five analysts rate Intuit stock: 19 buys, 5 outperforms, 9 holds, 1 underperform, and 1 sell. A separate count of 33 analysts currently publish a price target on the stock, with a mean of $451, 31% above the current $346 price.
That gap has moved around sharply. The mean target held near $824 through October 2025 even as the stock had already fallen to $668, then was cut steadily to $783 in January, $594 in April, and $487 in June as the stock kept dropping faster than the target could follow. The Target/Close ratio, a clean read on how stretched that gap gets, swung from 105% at the July 2025 close to 186% by June 30, then narrowed back to 131% as shares recovered off their low. Coverage never thinned, growing from 29 analysts in July 2025 to 33 now, and the first sell rating only appeared alongside the June downgrade activity. The Street kept marking targets down through the decline rather than walking away from the stock.
TIKR Values Intuit Stock at $592, Pricing In 71% Upside by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Intuit at $592 by July 2030, implying 71% total return from the current price of $346, or 15% annualized over four years.
That places TIKR’s model well above the Street’s own $451 mean target, betting the AI threat has been priced into the stock more aggressively than the underlying business justifies.
The gap holds up against Intuit’s own numbers. Revenue still grew 10% in the most recent quarter and full-year guidance went up, not down, even as the company cut TurboTax’s forecast and its headcount. Five-year revenue growth has run at a 19.7% CAGR, well above the 10.9% mid-case assumption baked into TIKR’s forward model, which leaves room for the target to be reachable even if AI competition compresses TurboTax pricing power over the next two years, as Goldman expects.
Should You Invest in Intuit Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Intuit Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
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